2024 Geopolitical Landscape

The beginning of 2024 witnesses two significant conflicts: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel's War against terrorism in Gaza. These conflicts, affecting Europe and the Middle East respectively, carry significant regional and global implications. The prolonged Ukrainian conflict is backed by military support from the United States, while the Gaza war has ramifications extending to countries like Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iran, with the United States defending its staunch ally, Israel.

Adding to these tensions are North Korea's threats against South Korea, the potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and recent disputes between Guyana and Venezuela over the Esequibo territory. Are we on the brink of a geopolitical earthquake?

The year 2024 hosts over 50 electoral processes globally, including in powerful nations like Russia and the United States, and Latin American countries such as El Salvador, Mexico, and Venezuela. These events, coinciding with ongoing conflicts, could impact decisions not only based on state interests but also on internal and public perception considerations.

In the American context, a radical change is anticipated. The current U.S. administration has embraced a compliant foreign policy towards communist regimes in the hemisphere, compromising its stance amidst chaotic energy scenarios and significantly yielding to the Venezuelan regime. The lack of legitimate signals of transition to democracy from Maduro's dictatorship, with around 300 political prisoners and the ongoing torture of dissidents, underscores the urgent need for administrative change in Latin America and the region as a whole.

However, the change in the United States is critical not only regionally but also internally. Progressive policies have led to increased crime and an unprecedented opioid crisis in major U.S. cities, contrary to traditional values. Surveys position Trump as a favored candidate, though the possibility of judicial interference or unilateral mechanisms from certain Democratic states to prevent his candidacy poses a dangerous scenario.

In Latin America, the announced reforms in Argentina under the figure of Milei spark regional interest. While immediate effects are anticipated, these reforms could be exploited by leftist groups for destabilization. If Argentina manages to weather the storm, it could potentially become an exemplary economic model for the region.

The agreement between the United States and Maduro's regime to hold elections in Venezuela raises skepticism. The suspension of the disqualification of opposition candidate María Corina Machado and her plan to create a network of 600,000 people as electoral support could open a significant window for civil expression after years of dormancy.

The outcomes of 2024 remain a mystery, but the events unfolding this year have the potential to profoundly alter the global trajectory from its very foundations.

Julio César Rivas

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